Spain
What does this mean for summer in Spain?
The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026.
Forecasts indicate there is a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.El Niño events affect temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions.
However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
What does this mean for summer in Spain?
El Niño only has an indirect influence via the large-scale weather pattern.
Much more important for Spain are:
Azores High
Atlantic Lows
Saharan air masses
Conclusion!
El Niño can:
favor more stable weather
make heat waves more likely
reduce rainfall
But:
Its influence is limited and not dominant
