Mediterranean low: heavy rain for southern Italy and Greece
The low deepens to 1003 hPa on Monday. The model expects 46 mm for Bari with gusts of 65 km/h, and 32 mm for Corfu.
Forecast precipitation and air pressure on Monday, 2 November 2026, 19:00 UTC — ICON-EU model, graphic: meteo365.es
Text size
Line spacing
A low-pressure system is developing over the Ionian Sea and is expected to bring a significant deterioration in the weather across parts of southern Italy, Greece and the Balkans over the coming days. Our forecasts indicate heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds and locally dangerous conditions.
The system develops on Saturday, 31 October, and then shapes the weather across the central and eastern Mediterranean on Sunday and Monday.
A low develops over the Ionian Sea
The latest ICON-EU data on meteo365.es show a low-pressure system forming between southern Italy and Greece.
On Saturday its central pressure is still around 1016 hPa. By Monday midday it falls to about 1003 hPa, with the centre between Sicily and Calabria. The deeper the pressure, the stronger the circulation around the low.
Moist Mediterranean air feeds into unstable areas. That is the mixture from which widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms develop.
The forecast precipitation fields extend from southern Italy across the Ionian Sea to western and southern Greece, with further areas of rain over the Balkans.
Moisture, instability and the circulation around the low can produce a great deal of rain locally in a short time.
Southern Italy: heavy rain and thunderstorms
Southern Italy is among the regions facing the clearest change.
For Monday, 2 November, ICON-EU expects 46 mm in Bari with gusts of around 65 km/h. The model shows 34 mm for Taranto and 29 mm for Lecce.
Bari already sees around 45 mm on Saturday — the first burst, before the low really gets going.
Apulia and the adjacent Ionian Sea are the most affected. Thunderstorms may develop within the areas of rain.
Depending on how the low evolves, strong winds and rough seas could also reach exposed coasts.
Exactly where the heaviest rain falls may still shift with the next model runs.
Greece and the Balkans: the focus moves east
For Greece and its neighbours the forecast becomes particularly interesting — but a day later.
On Monday the focus is still in the west: the model expects 32 mm for Corfu, with gusts around 60 km/h. The Ionian Islands and the western Greek mainland get the rain first.
The mountains of western Greece add to the totals, because the moist air is forced to rise there. That locally increases the risk of flooding.
The Aegean, Athens and the Balkans, by contrast, stay largely dry on Monday. Only on Tuesday, 3 November, does the low move further east — the model then shows 20 mm for Skopje, 17 mm for Athens, 15 mm for Patras and 14 mm for Sofia.
So anyone looking at Greece or the Balkans should watch Tuesday rather than Monday.
Where the rain goes
Forecast daily total per location · ICON-EU run of 30 October 2026, 00 UTC
1Bari Italy45 mm
2Corfu Greece16 mm
3Lecce Italy5 mm
4Skopje N. Macedonia2 mm
5Taranto Italy1 mm
6Athens Greece1 mm
7Ioannina Greece0 mm
8Patras Greece0 mm
1Ioannina Greece13 mm
2Skopje N. Macedonia9 mm
3Corfu Greece4 mm
4Patras Greece4 mm
5Bari Italy2 mm
6Athens Greece1 mm
7Taranto Italy0 mm
8Lecce Italy0 mm
1Bari Italy46 mm
2Taranto Italy34 mm
3Corfu Greece32 mm
4Lecce Italy29 mm
5Ioannina Greece8 mm
6Patras Greece4 mm
7Athens Greece1 mm
8Skopje N. Macedonia1 mm
1Bari Italy20 mm
2Skopje N. Macedonia20 mm
3Athens Greece17 mm
4Patras Greece15 mm
5Ioannina Greece11 mm
6Corfu Greece8 mm
7Lecce Italy4 mm
8Taranto Italy1 mm
Highlighted: 25 mm or more in a day. Source: meteo365.es, ICON-EU model · forecast values, not measurements.
Coasts and sea conditions
Besides the rain, the low also affects conditions over the Ionian and Aegean Seas.
The stronger winds around the system can build rough seas, particularly in exposed coastal waters.
Shipping, ferry connections and coastal trips may be affected if the low develops as calculated.
Anyone travelling in the affected regions or planning outdoor activities should follow the latest forecasts and the official warnings of the relevant weather service.
What our map shows
The map accompanying this article shows the ICON-EU precipitation forecast for Monday, 2 November 2026, at 19:00 UTC.
The model highlights several areas of heavy rain:
Southern Italy and the Ionian Sea, including the Bari area and the southern Italian coast.
Western and southern Greece, with strong signals from the Ionian Islands to the mainland.
The Aegean, where showers and thunderstorms may develop as the system progresses.
Parts of the Balkans, reached as the low tracks east.
The colours represent the forecast rainfall amounts; the white lines show the pressure pattern.
These are model calculations, not measurements. The precise position of individual thunderstorms and the highest rainfall totals in particular cannot yet be determined with certainty.
The next 48 hours are decisive
The development of this Mediterranean low deserves attention over the coming days.
The current forecast shows clear impacts, but the track, the intensity and the distribution of the heaviest rain remain uncertain.
The next model runs will show which regions face the greatest risk.
Residents, holidaymakers and travellers in southern Italy, Greece and the Balkans should stay informed and follow the official warnings of their national weather service.Weather you can understand. Information you can trust.
Forecast basis: meteo365.es, ICON-EU model, run of 30 October 2026, 00 UTC. Rainfall amounts, gusts and pressure are forecast values, not measurements. Official warnings are issued by the national weather services.
