Spain: Atlantic systems could bring a very wet week
From Sunday, rain moves in from the Atlantic. Two models show the same pattern — ICON puts 37 mm on Lisbon for Monday.
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The latest ECMWF forecasts suggest that Spain is heading into a distinctly unsettled period next week, with extensive areas of rain moving in from the Atlantic.
On Monday and Tuesday the rain bands spread across mainland Spain, locally with substantial amounts.
The unsettled pattern may well continue beyond Wednesday into the second half of the week, with further rain affecting changing regions.
The video shows the forecast rain from 22:00 on Sunday evening to 19:00 on Friday evening — ECMWF model, run of 4 November.
The forecast shows clear potential for rain, but the amounts, the timing and the locations are still uncertain. Small shifts in the track of the Atlantic systems make a large difference: some regions could see prolonged rain while others enjoy longer dry spells.
One encouraging sign is that a second model shows the same pattern. For the same days, our ICON global calculates these daily totals:
Forecast daily totals from the ICON global run of 4 November 2026, 00 UTC. The further ahead a forecast reaches, the greater the uncertainty — these figures show the order of magnitude, not the final word.
But the fact that two independently calculated models put the focus on the west and southwest makes the overall pattern fairly likely.
Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Lanzarote stay largely dry on today's calculation.
Our forecasts are recalculated four times every day. With a situation still a week away, a daily look is worth it.
And once the rain arrives, RADAR + NowCast helps you follow it minute by minute. Our radar view is prepared from the official radar data of the national weather services; our own processing also distinguishes between rain, sleet, snow and hail, and the NowCast adds the movement of the coming period.
Stay with meteo365.es as the forecast becomes clearer over the coming days.
Weather you can understand. Information you can trust.
Forecast basis: meteo365.es, ECMWF and ICON global models, runs of 4 November 2026, 00 UTC. All figures are forecast values, not measurements, and may change considerably with subsequent runs.
What the forecast shows
From Sunday, 8 November, a large Atlantic system approaches the Iberian Peninsula. The rain first reaches Portugal, western Spain and the western Canary Islands.On Monday and Tuesday the rain bands spread across mainland Spain, locally with substantial amounts.
The unsettled pattern may well continue beyond Wednesday into the second half of the week, with further rain affecting changing regions.
The video shows the forecast rain from 22:00 on Sunday evening to 19:00 on Friday evening — ECMWF model, run of 4 November.
How much rain will there be?
That is the big question.The forecast shows clear potential for rain, but the amounts, the timing and the locations are still uncertain. Small shifts in the track of the Atlantic systems make a large difference: some regions could see prolonged rain while others enjoy longer dry spells.
One encouraging sign is that a second model shows the same pattern. For the same days, our ICON global calculates these daily totals:
| Location | Sun 8 Nov | Mon 9 Nov | Tue 10 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 17 mm | 37 mm | 15 mm |
| Faro | 36 mm | 30 mm | 29 mm |
| Badajoz | 9 mm | 34 mm | 16 mm |
| Cáceres | 10 mm | 22 mm | 21 mm |
| Seville | 9 mm | 21 mm | 43 mm |
| Madrid | 6 mm | 22 mm | 10 mm |
| A Coruña | 9 mm | 8 mm | 3 mm |
But the fact that two independently calculated models put the focus on the west and southwest makes the overall pattern fairly likely.
And the Canary Islands?
On the Canaries the amounts stay modest. The rain mainly clips the western islands: ICON expects around 11 mm for La Gomera on Sunday, and 12 mm for El Hierro and 8 mm for La Palma on Wednesday.Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Lanzarote stay largely dry on today's calculation.
Follow the development on meteo365.es
Our interactive weather maps let you follow how the forecast for Spain, the Balearics and the Canaries shifts from one run to the next.Our forecasts are recalculated four times every day. With a situation still a week away, a daily look is worth it.
And once the rain arrives, RADAR + NowCast helps you follow it minute by minute. Our radar view is prepared from the official radar data of the national weather services; our own processing also distinguishes between rain, sleet, snow and hail, and the NowCast adds the movement of the coming period.
Our conclusion
Next week could bring a substantial change to Spain's weather. Where the heaviest rain will fall, however, is still too early to say.Stay with meteo365.es as the forecast becomes clearer over the coming days.
Weather you can understand. Information you can trust.
Forecast basis: meteo365.es, ECMWF and ICON global models, runs of 4 November 2026, 00 UTC. All figures are forecast values, not measurements, and may change considerably with subsequent runs.
