After Bruna: subtropical low brings heavy rain to southwestern Spain on Wednesday
ECMWF and ICON agree on the timing but not on the depth of the centre — 978 against 995 hPa. Wind and rainfall hang on that.
Rainfall accumulated over Wednesday 11 November 2026 in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula — ICON-EU model, map: meteo365.es
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Storm Bruna is still over the Iberian Peninsula, and the next low is already taking shape for midweek. It forms over the Atlantic southwest of Portugal, has subtropical characteristics and reaches the southwest of the peninsula on Wednesday 11 November. It eases from the west on Thursday.
About the name
Forecasts are already referring to the system as Charles — the next name available on the southwestern European naming group's list, after Adam and Bruna. It has not been officially named so far. That decision rests with Portugal's meteorological service, IPMA, since Portugal would be affected first, and it is only taken once the criteria are met.
What our models compute
Both models place the centre west of Lisbon on Wednesday afternoon. On its depth they differ widely: ECMWF takes the pressure down to around 978 hPa in a very small core, and three hours later it is back at 993 in the same spot. Our ICON only goes down to about 995 hPa there, but more evenly.
That gap of a good fifteen hectopascals is the heart of the uncertainty. It explains why the two models arrive at different figures for wind and rainfall even though they agree on the timing and the location.
Rain in the southwest
The focus is on southwestern Andalusia: Cádiz, Huelva, the Seville area and the Serranía de Ronda. For Wednesday, ICON-EU computes daily totals there of between 66 and 75 mm, ECMWF between 37 and 48 mm. The direction is the same, the amount is not.
Wednesday 11 November: two models, one situation
Forecast rainfall for the day · mark in the bar: 50 mm · runs of 9 November 2026, ICON-EU 06 UTC, ECMWF 00 UTC
Lissabon Portugal27 mm
Faro Algarve69 mm
Cádiz Andalusia75 mm
Huelva Andalusia72 mm
Sevilla Andalusia72 mm
Ronda Serranía66 mm
Tarifa Strait39 mm
Málaga Costa del Sol33 mm
Granada Andalusia7 mm
Lissabon Portugal82 mm
Faro Algarve38 mm
Cádiz Andalusia44 mm
Huelva Andalusia48 mm
Sevilla Andalusia45 mm
Ronda Serranía37 mm
Tarifa Strait33 mm
Málaga Costa del Sol22 mm
Granada Andalusia14 mm
Highlighted: 50 mm or more in a day. Same order in both states — what changes when you switch is the difference between the models. Source: meteo365.es · forecast values, not measurements.
The highest total in ICON-EU falls in the Sierra de Grazalema, at around 85 mm — the place that regularly records Spain's highest annual rainfall. It is no use for the comparison in the chart: the coarser ECMWF grid does not resolve it.
On the Costa del Sol the amounts stay well below that. For Málaga the models compute 33 mm (ICON-EU) and 22 mm (ECMWF) — a wet day, but not an exceptional one. More comes together in the hills behind the western stretch of coast, above Estepona and Marbella; there, though, the two models are so far apart that quoting a figure would not be sound.
Wind
Wind is where the difference between the models shows most clearly. For Wednesday the computed peak gusts in the southwest range from 50 to a good 100 km/h depending on the model. At Cádiz, ICON-EU computes 102 km/h and ECMWF 79; at Seville it is the other way round, 46 against 74 km/h.
The exposed spots are more reliable: in the Sierra de Grazalema ICON-EU computes gusts of around 119 km/h, and 83 km/h in the Strait of Gibraltar. That it will be stormy there is something both models show.
Rough seas — on the Atlantic side
For Wednesday our EWAM wave model computes a significant wave height of up to 5.7 metres in the Gulf of Cádiz, up to 4.9 metres off Huelva and up to 4.4 metres at Cape St Vincent. In the Strait of Gibraltar it is 3.6 metres.
Off the Costa del Sol, by contrast, the sea stays calm: EWAM computes 1.4 metres there. In this situation the heavy seas belong to the Atlantic side, not to the Mediterranean coast.
Thursday
On Thursday the focus moves away to the east. The west dries out quickly, while rain continues at the Strait and in eastern Andalusia. Here too the models disagree on how much: for Tarifa, ECMWF computes 38 mm and ICON-EU only 5.
Take care
With daily totals of around 70 mm and more, local flooding is possible, particularly where the ground is already saturated from the preceding days. Barrancos and dry riverbeds are best avoided, and flooded roads should never be driven through.
On the Atlantic coast and at the Strait, the combination of wind and sea state is a good reason to stay away from breakwaters, open promenades and rocky shores.
And because the models are still so far apart on the depth of the centre: Tuesday's and Wednesday's runs will sharpen the picture considerably. It is worth following the forecast until then.
Following the situation
Our interactive maps let you follow how rain, gusts and pressure shift from one run to the next. Our forecasts are recomputed four times a day, and the two models can be set directly against each other.For warnings and recommendations, AEMET and civil protection always apply.
Weather you can understand. Information you can trust.
Figures: ICON-EU, ICON global, ECMWF and EWAM models from meteo365.es, runs of 9 November 2026. These are forecast values, not measurements. The name Charles has not been officially assigned so far.
