Change of weather in Spain: rain and thunderstorms from Saturday
ICON forecast from 12 October 2026: an unsettled phase is taking shape from Saturday, with heavy rain in the south and east, including the Costa del Sol.
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After an unusually warm and in many places dry first half of October, the weather situation in Spain could change fundamentally next weekend. The current calculations of the ICON weather model point to an increasingly unsettled phase from Saturday, 17 October 2026. Heavy rain and thunderstorms could occur above all in southern and eastern Spain. The Costa del Sol could also see its first more pronounced spell of rain this autumn. For now, however, this is a medium-range model forecast, not a confirmed severe weather situation.
meteo365.es weather desk | 12 October 2026
On today's Spanish national holiday, the Día de la Hispanidad, temperatures of around 31°C are expected again in Seville and Córdoba.
Yet the coming days may be marked by a clear change in the weather.
The current calculations of the global ICON weather model show indications of a changed large-scale pattern over the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean.
From Saturday, 17 October, areas of low pressure could increasingly influence the weather in Spain. This could develop into a multi-day phase with widespread rain, locally heavy downpours and thunderstorms.
This development is particularly interesting for the southern and eastern parts of the country, where the weather has recently been mostly warm and dry.
After a longer phase of mostly pleasant and warm weather, the region could be hit by a more pronounced rain situation for the first time this autumn.
The current ICON forecast shows extensive precipitation signals over parts of Andalusia and the neighbouring Mediterranean.
Heavier rainfall is also shown in the model around Málaga, Cádiz and the Strait of Gibraltar.
Should this development be confirmed, the temporarily higher rainfall intensities and possible thunderstorms could play a role in particular.
At this point, however, it is not yet possible to determine reliably which places will actually be affected and how much rain could fall within a given period.
On the Costa del Sol in particular, rainfall totals can vary strongly from region to region because of the proximity to the sea, the mountain ranges in the hinterland and the respective wind direction.
Heavy areas of precipitation could develop temporarily along the Spanish Mediterranean coast as well.
Particularly striking in this forecast are the precipitation signals in the Valencia and Murcia regions.
In these areas, humid air masses from the Mediterranean can reach the mainland under suitable atmospheric conditions and favour the development of intense rainfall.
Whether this turns into a longer-lasting rainy spell or only individual heavy rainfall events depends decisively on how the low-pressure systems develop.
The exact position of a low-pressure centre, the wind direction and the distribution of moisture can determine which regions receive the highest totals.
For meteorological forecasts that is an important period, in which the calculations can certainly change.
Even small shifts of the pressure systems can move the focus of the rain by many kilometres.
The intensity of possible thunderstorms and the duration of the rainy phase are also still subject to considerable uncertainty.
A clear distinction is therefore important:
The current ICON calculation shows a possible development. It is neither a confirmed severe weather situation nor an official weather warning.
The rainfall totals shown on our weather map are model forecasts and not rainfall that has already been measured.
Whether a longer and possibly stormy phase actually develops will be shown by the coming model runs.
The two functions do different jobs and complement each other especially in changeable or potentially dangerous situations.
This includes forecasts for precipitation, temperatures, wind and air pressure, among others.
Our global weather models are updated four times a day.
This allows users to watch how the calculations change and whether a tendency that is visible at first is confirmed or weakened by new runs.
In the current case it is possible to follow, for example, whether the focus of the rain stays over Andalusia and the Mediterranean or moves to other regions.
Weather models help you prepare for possible developments.
While weather models calculate the future development of the atmosphere, the radar shows the areas of precipitation currently detected, almost in real time.
Users can see where precipitation is occurring right now and how it has moved in the recent past.
The integrated NowCast function adds a short-term forecast of the further movement.
This makes it possible to estimate whether an existing area of rain will move towards Málaga, Marbella, Fuengirola or another town in the next few minutes.
Another advantage is the differentiated display of precipitation types.
RADAR + NowCast from meteo365.es distinguishes between rain, snow, sleet and hail.
This distinction is particularly helpful in changeable weather, because not every precipitation is automatically rain.
However, a radar-based short-range forecast also carries uncertainties. Newly forming thunderstorms in particular can change within a short time.
Weather models show what could happen. RADAR + NowCast helps you follow what is actually happening once the rain arrives.
While the air over the European mainland cools down increasingly, the Mediterranean is often still comparatively warm after the summer months.
As a result, plenty of moisture can remain available to the atmosphere over the sea.
When humid air masses meet suitable lifting mechanisms, for example in connection with low-pressure systems or at mountains, heavy rainfall can develop.
Under certain conditions, intense thunderstorms form as well.
That does not mean, however, that every autumn low automatically leads to severe weather.
What matters is the specific atmospheric constellation, the distribution of moisture, the stability of the air and the speed at which areas of rain move.
Situations in which heavy rain affects almost the same areas for a longer time can become particularly problematic.
Whether such a constellation develops next weekend is still open.
We are watching three questions particularly closely:
Should the risk of heavy rainfall become more concrete, official weather warnings will gain in importance as well.
From Saturday, 17 October, areas of low pressure could bring widespread rain and local thunderstorms.
According to the current model calculations, the Costa del Sol, Andalusia and parts of the eastern Mediterranean coast are particularly in focus.
It is still too early to speak with certainty of an approaching severe weather situation. The current signals are clear enough, however, to keep following the development closely.Editorial status: 12 October 2026, morning. The development shown can change with further model calculations.
meteo365.es weather desk | 12 October 2026
After late-summer temperatures, a change is taking shape
Spain is currently experiencing an October that in many regions feels more like late summer than autumn. Only last weekend, highs of more than 30°C were measured in Andalusia and other parts of the country.On today's Spanish national holiday, the Día de la Hispanidad, temperatures of around 31°C are expected again in Seville and Córdoba.
Yet the coming days may be marked by a clear change in the weather.
The current calculations of the global ICON weather model show indications of a changed large-scale pattern over the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean.
From Saturday, 17 October, areas of low pressure could increasingly influence the weather in Spain. This could develop into a multi-day phase with widespread rain, locally heavy downpours and thunderstorms.
This development is particularly interesting for the southern and eastern parts of the country, where the weather has recently been mostly warm and dry.
Costa del Sol: first serious spell of rain this autumn possible
For the province of Málaga and the Costa del Sol, such a development would be meteorologically remarkable.After a longer phase of mostly pleasant and warm weather, the region could be hit by a more pronounced rain situation for the first time this autumn.
The current ICON forecast shows extensive precipitation signals over parts of Andalusia and the neighbouring Mediterranean.
Heavier rainfall is also shown in the model around Málaga, Cádiz and the Strait of Gibraltar.
Should this development be confirmed, the temporarily higher rainfall intensities and possible thunderstorms could play a role in particular.
At this point, however, it is not yet possible to determine reliably which places will actually be affected and how much rain could fall within a given period.
On the Costa del Sol in particular, rainfall totals can vary strongly from region to region because of the proximity to the sea, the mountain ranges in the hinterland and the respective wind direction.
Valencia, Murcia and other Mediterranean regions in view as well
According to the current model calculations, the possible change does not affect Andalusia alone.Heavy areas of precipitation could develop temporarily along the Spanish Mediterranean coast as well.
Particularly striking in this forecast are the precipitation signals in the Valencia and Murcia regions.
In these areas, humid air masses from the Mediterranean can reach the mainland under suitable atmospheric conditions and favour the development of intense rainfall.
Whether this turns into a longer-lasting rainy spell or only individual heavy rainfall events depends decisively on how the low-pressure systems develop.
The exact position of a low-pressure centre, the wind direction and the distribution of moisture can determine which regions receive the highest totals.
Why the development is still uncertain
Several days lie between this Monday and the possible start of the change.For meteorological forecasts that is an important period, in which the calculations can certainly change.
Even small shifts of the pressure systems can move the focus of the rain by many kilometres.
The intensity of possible thunderstorms and the duration of the rainy phase are also still subject to considerable uncertainty.
A clear distinction is therefore important:
The current ICON calculation shows a possible development. It is neither a confirmed severe weather situation nor an official weather warning.
The rainfall totals shown on our weather map are model forecasts and not rainfall that has already been measured.
Whether a longer and possibly stormy phase actually develops will be shown by the coming model runs.
Two important tools: forecast and RADAR + NowCast
At meteo365.es, users can follow such a development in two different ways.The two functions do different jobs and complement each other especially in changeable or potentially dangerous situations.
1. Weather models: what could happen in the coming days?
The interactive weather maps of meteo365.es make it possible to look at the calculated development of the weather several days ahead.This includes forecasts for precipitation, temperatures, wind and air pressure, among others.
Our global weather models are updated four times a day.
This allows users to watch how the calculations change and whether a tendency that is visible at first is confirmed or weakened by new runs.
In the current case it is possible to follow, for example, whether the focus of the rain stays over Andalusia and the Mediterranean or moves to other regions.
Weather models help you prepare for possible developments.
2. RADAR + NowCast: what actually happens when the rain arrives?
Should the forecast rain and thunderstorms actually develop next weekend, another function becomes especially important: our RADAR + NowCast.While weather models calculate the future development of the atmosphere, the radar shows the areas of precipitation currently detected, almost in real time.
Users can see where precipitation is occurring right now and how it has moved in the recent past.
The integrated NowCast function adds a short-term forecast of the further movement.
This makes it possible to estimate whether an existing area of rain will move towards Málaga, Marbella, Fuengirola or another town in the next few minutes.
Another advantage is the differentiated display of precipitation types.
RADAR + NowCast from meteo365.es distinguishes between rain, snow, sleet and hail.
This distinction is particularly helpful in changeable weather, because not every precipitation is automatically rain.
However, a radar-based short-range forecast also carries uncertainties. Newly forming thunderstorms in particular can change within a short time.
Weather models show what could happen. RADAR + NowCast helps you follow what is actually happening once the rain arrives.
Why heavy rain is possible especially in autumn
In the Mediterranean, autumn is a season in which pronounced weather contrasts can develop.While the air over the European mainland cools down increasingly, the Mediterranean is often still comparatively warm after the summer months.
As a result, plenty of moisture can remain available to the atmosphere over the sea.
When humid air masses meet suitable lifting mechanisms, for example in connection with low-pressure systems or at mountains, heavy rainfall can develop.
Under certain conditions, intense thunderstorms form as well.
That does not mean, however, that every autumn low automatically leads to severe weather.
What matters is the specific atmospheric constellation, the distribution of moisture, the stability of the air and the speed at which areas of rain move.
Situations in which heavy rain affects almost the same areas for a longer time can become particularly problematic.
Whether such a constellation develops next weekend is still open.
The coming model runs will be decisive
The next few days will show whether the current ICON calculations point to a stable development.We are watching three questions particularly closely:
- Does a longer-lasting low-pressure situation actually develop over the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean?
- Where will the focus of the heaviest rainfall lie?
- Could individual regions be affected by longer-lasting heavy rain or intense thunderstorms?
Should the risk of heavy rainfall become more concrete, official weather warnings will gain in importance as well.
Conclusion: a possible change that Spain should keep an eye on
After a long phase of unusually warm October weather, a possible switch to considerably more unsettled conditions is taking shape for Spain.From Saturday, 17 October, areas of low pressure could bring widespread rain and local thunderstorms.
According to the current model calculations, the Costa del Sol, Andalusia and parts of the eastern Mediterranean coast are particularly in focus.
It is still too early to speak with certainty of an approaching severe weather situation. The current signals are clear enough, however, to keep following the development closely.Editorial status: 12 October 2026, morning. The development shown can change with further model calculations.
