Atlantic 2026: still no hurricane – 2002 and 2013 record broken
As of 12 September 2026, at the peak of the season, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic – the latest start since 1966.
Right at the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical Atlantic is experiencing a remarkable period of calm. As of 12 September, not a single hurricane has developed during the entire 2026 season.
This means a record has now been broken that had stood since the beginning of the modern satellite era in 1966.
Even more remarkable: there is currently no sign of an imminent hurricane developing over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is reporting no tropical cyclones and no disturbances with development potential anywhere across the Atlantic.
Record since 1966: the latest hurricane start of the satellite era
Since 1966, satellites have allowed meteorologists to monitor tropical activity across the Atlantic almost continuously.During that period, the latest date on which the first hurricane of an Atlantic season had formed was 11 September. This happened in both 2002 and 2013.
The 2026 season has now passed that mark.
It is 12 September, and the Atlantic hurricane count still stands at:
0 Hurricanes.
0 Major Hurricanes.
That makes 2026 the latest start to hurricane activity in the entire modern satellite era.
The season has not been completely devoid of tropical activity. According to the current NHC tally, five named tropical storms have formed so far: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.
None of them reached hurricane strength.
By 11 September, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – a measure combining the duration and intensity of tropical cyclones – stood at just 4.4, around 93% below the normal value for this point in the season.
The 2026 hurricane season in numbers
North Atlantic · as of 12 September 2026
hurricanes
so far this season
NOAA outlook for the whole season: 2–6
major hurricanes
category 3 and above
NOAA outlook: at most 2
named tropical storms
NOAA outlook: 7–13
Show names
Arthur · Bertha · Cristobal · Dolly · Edouard
None of them reached hurricane strength.
ACE up to 11 September
Accumulated Cyclone Energy – a measure of the duration and intensity of tropical cyclones: around 93 % below normal
Calm at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season
That is what makes the situation particularly remarkable.The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from 1 June until 30 November, but statistically, activity reaches its climatological peak around 10 September.
Normally, this is one of the busiest periods of the year between the West African coast, Cape Verde, the Caribbean and the Gulf.
Tropical waves move westwards from Africa into the Atlantic, ocean temperatures are very warm, and atmospheric conditions are often particularly favourable for tropical cyclone development.
2026 is presenting a completely different picture.
In its latest outlook on 12 September, the NHC reported no tropical cyclones anywhere in the Atlantic. Its seven-day outlook also currently shows no significant tropical disturbance with development potential.
Calm at the very peak of the season
Atlantic hurricane season: 1 June to 30 November
104 of 183 days of the season have passed – without a single hurricane.
The decisive days – tap to explore
10 September – the statistical peak of the season. Normally this is the busiest time between the West African coast, the Cape Verde Islands, the Caribbean and the Gulf.
11 September – the previous record: in 2002 and 2013 the first hurricane of the season formed this late. Never later since satellite monitoring began in 1966.
12 September – today: 2026 is still without a hurricane. The latest start of the entire satellite era.
Saharan dust over the Atlantic: what the meteo365.es aerosol map shows
A look at our latest meteo365.es aerosol map, based on CAMS/Copernicus data, is particularly interesting in this context.The graphic from 12 September 2026 at 11:00 CEST shows a pronounced transport of Saharan dust and desert aerosols from West Africa out across the tropical Atlantic.
Particularly high aerosol concentrations can be seen off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, with a broad plume of dust subsequently extending far westwards across the Atlantic.
This is a meteorologically important region.
So-called African Easterly Waves move from West Africa out over the Atlantic. During a typical hurricane season, many tropical storms and hurricanes ultimately develop from these tropical waves.
Saharan dust can suppress tropical development
The role such dust outbreaks can play was explained by the German Weather Service (DWD) in its Thema des Tages feature on 15 August 2024.At the time, the situation was almost the opposite of what we are seeing in 2026: Hurricane Ernesto was moving across the Atlantic.
The DWD explained why large outbreaks of Saharan dust can make it more difficult for weak tropical systems in particular to develop and intensify.
The dust is frequently transported across the Atlantic within the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) – a very dry, warm and dust-laden air mass in the middle troposphere.
The aerosols also influence the atmosphere's radiation balance. Together, these factors can produce a relatively stable and exceptionally dry layer of air.
For a developing tropical depression, those are far from ideal conditions.
Tropical cyclones require deep, organised thunderstorms extending through a large part of the atmosphere. When dry air becomes mixed into these thunderstorm complexes, evaporation of cloud droplets and precipitation increases.
Convection can consequently weaken or partially collapse.
The DWD therefore described Saharan dust in 2024 as one factor capable of significantly inhibiting the intensification of tropical depressions and other weakly organised tropical cyclones.
How Saharan dust can hold back hurricanes
Simplified cross-section from the tropical Atlantic to West Africa
The Saharan dust brings the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) across the Atlantic – a very dry, warm and dusty air mass in the middle troposphere. The aerosols also affect the radiation balance, which can create a relatively stable, exceptionally dry layer of air.
African easterly waves move from West Africa out over the Atlantic. In a normal season, many tropical storms and hurricanes develop from these waves – right through the region now covered by the dust plume.
Tropical cyclones need tall, organised thunderstorms. When dry air is mixed into these storm complexes, more cloud and rain water evaporates – convection can weaken or partly collapse.
El Niño and wind shear: why the dust alone is not enough
As tempting as it may be to connect our current dust map directly with this extraordinarily weak hurricane season, Saharan dust is only one piece of the meteorological puzzle.In 2026, a combination of several unfavourable factors appears to be working against hurricane development.
These include dry air, above-average atmospheric pressure and unfavourable upper-level winds, including increased vertical wind shear.
Another major large-scale factor is the strong El Niño event.
El Niño alters atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and typically increases wind shear across parts of the Atlantic.
Put simply, winds at different altitudes blow more strongly from different directions or at different speeds.
That is a major problem for hurricanes.
Their thunderstorms need to organise as vertically as possible around the centre of circulation. Strong wind shear can tilt and disrupt this structure, effectively pulling a developing tropical cyclone apart.
Why wind shear tears a hurricane apart
Switch and compare
The wind blows similarly at all heights. Thunderstorms can organise vertically around the centre of circulation – the storm can strengthen.
At different heights the wind blows from different directions or at different speeds. The vertical structure is literally pulled apart. El Niño typically increases this shear over parts of the Atlantic.
The updated forecast called for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and no more than two major hurricanes.
Warm ocean water alone does not make a hurricane
The 2026 season is providing an impressive demonstration of an important meteorological principle:Warm ocean temperatures alone are not enough to produce a hurricane.
A tropical cyclone needs several ingredients to come together at the same time: sufficiently warm ocean water, high atmospheric moisture, an unstable atmosphere, low vertical wind shear, a pre-existing atmospheric disturbance and sufficient distance from the equator for the Coriolis effect to support organised rotation.
If just one of these ingredients is significantly lacking, tropical development can fail.
At times during 2026, several of them have been missing simultaneously.
That is why thunderstorm complexes can still form over a warm tropical Atlantic only to weaken and dissipate again without ever developing a closed tropical circulation.
What a hurricane needs – and what is missing in 2026
Tap to expand
Warm sea waterpresent
The sea is very warm. But high water temperatures alone are not enough for a hurricane.
High humiditydisrupted
The Saharan Air Layer brings very dry air into the middle troposphere over the Atlantic.
Unstable atmospheredisrupted
Dust and dry air can form a relatively stable layer. Tall thunderstorms then struggle to develop.
Low wind sheardisrupted
The strong El Niño event increases wind shear over parts of the Atlantic and pulls young storms apart.
An atmospheric disturbancenone now
The National Hurricane Center currently lists no tropical disturbance with development potential in the Atlantic.
Distance from the equatorgiven
Enough distance from the equator for the Coriolis force to support an organised rotation.
Contrast with 2024: Hurricane Ernesto was already on the move
The comparison with the DWD report from 2024 makes the current situation particularly striking.On 15 August 2024, Ernesto had already reached hurricane strength. At the time, the DWD discussed how Saharan dust could influence tropical cyclone development and why an already well-organised hurricane may react differently to aerosols than a young and poorly organised tropical system.
In 2026, almost one month later, the situation could hardly be more different:
12 September – and still no hurricane.
That is unprecedented since at least 1966.
Will the 2026 hurricane season end without a hurricane?
No. It is far too early to draw that conclusion.The Atlantic hurricane season continues until 30 November, and powerful hurricanes can still develop during October.
Historical records from before comprehensive satellite observations even contain years with extremely late starts.
In 1905, for example, the first recorded hurricane did not appear until 7 October, while the historical records for 1907 and 1914 contain no hurricanes at all.
However, these early records cannot be directly compared with the modern satellite era because storms far out at sea could easily have gone undetected at the time.
The latest season starts
Date of the first Atlantic hurricane of a season
No hurricane at all is listed for 1907 and 1914. Because satellite observation was lacking at the time, these early records are not directly comparable with the modern era.
Since 1966, satellites have allowed the Atlantic to be tracked almost without gaps. 2026 has now passed the previous mark of 11 September.
A single favourable atmospheric window can be enough to transform the situation within just a few days.
Conclusion: A historic 12 September in the Atlantic
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is already making weather history.Never since reliable satellite monitoring began in 1966 have we had to wait this long for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.
The previous record of 11 September, set in 2002 and 2013, has now been broken.
At the same time, the latest meteo365.es graphic shows extensive Saharan dust and aerosol transport across parts of the Atlantic's traditional tropical cyclone development region.
Combined with dry air, unfavourable upper-level winds and a strong El Niño, this is currently creating a remarkably hostile environment for tropical cyclone development.
And for now, the Atlantic remains quiet: the National Hurricane Center currently lists no tropical disturbance with development potential anywhere in the basin.
But the season is far from over.
That is exactly why we at meteo365.es will be keeping a particularly close eye on the tropical Atlantic, Saharan dust outbreaks and the latest weather model developments over the coming weeks.
Sources: National Hurricane Center (NOAA), NOAA Climate Prediction Center, German Weather Service (DWD), CAMS/Copernicus
